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LIGO Document P1300203-v1
- Recently, Archibald et al. (2013) reported observing a sudden spin-down or anti-glitch in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586. Such events are rare; however this particular anti-glitch was followed by another event which Archibald et al. (2013) suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. In this paper we apply Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these two latter events better explains the observed data. We show that two successive anti-glitch events is the favoured explanation (with a Bayes Factor of ∼45) when compared to model consisting of an anti-glitch followed by a glitch. Further, we show that the second anti-glitch has in associated frequency change, Δν of −8.15×10−8 Hz. We discuss the implications of these results on possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch.
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